{"id":1785,"date":"2024-12-10T12:45:08","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/ntpmetode\/?page_id=1785"},"modified":"2025-11-24T13:25:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T12:25:44","slug":"fremsynsmetodikk","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/ntpmetode\/fremsynsmetodikk\/","title":{"rendered":"Fremsynsmetodikk"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"wp-block-post-title\">Fremsynsmetodikk<\/h1>\n\n<p class=\"t2-ingress wp-block-t2-ingress\">Fremsyn er en samlebetegnelse for ulike metoder, verkt\u00f8y og tankesett som p\u00e5 en systematisk og helhetlig m\u00e5te brukes for \u00e5 utforske og forst\u00e5 hvordan fremtiden kan utspille seg. Transportvirksomhetene jobber for tiden med hvordan en slik metodikk kan brukes i Nasjonal transportplan. Her vil det forel\u00f8pige kunnskapsgrunnlaget publiseres. <\/p>\n\n\n<p>Bakgrunnen for dette arbeidet er at arbeidet med NTP 2025-2036 viste at det er utfordrende \u00e5 beregne hva som skal til for \u00e5 modellere en transportettersp\u00f8rsel som er konsistent med:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kraftige nok kutt i klimagassutslipp fra transport<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tiltak\/virkemidler som ligger langt utenfor dagens politikk eller empiri<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hvordan tiltak i sektoren p\u00e5virker atferd i andre markeder og sektorer<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Virksomhetene har derfor f\u00e5tt i <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Utkast-til-metodeoppdrag.pdf\">oppdrag<\/a> \u00e5 unders\u00f8ke behovet for \u00e5 forbedre det faglige grunnlaget for \u00e5 vurdere m\u00e5loppn\u00e5else og fremtidig transportettersp\u00f8rsel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-ad2f72ca wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-container-content-9dbf05af\"><div class=\"t2-image-credit\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"629\" height=\"341\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/12\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1787\" style=\"width:308px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/12\/image.png 629w, https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/12\/image-300x163.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" \/><span class=\"t2-image-credit-name\">Transport of the North, 2020<\/span><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-container-content-29dca9c1\"><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/ntpmetode\/metodeoppdraget-fase-1-til-sd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Metodeoppdragets fase 1 kan leses her<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Strategier-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1877 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Strategier-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Strategier-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Strategier-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Strategier-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Strategier-2048x1152.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/ntpmetode\/nyheter\/forbedring-av-det-faglige-grunnlaget-for-a-vurdere-maloppnaelse-og-fremtidig-transportettersporsel\/\">Metodeoppdragets fase 2 kan leses her<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kunnskapsgrunnlag\">Kunnskapsgrunnlag<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"t2-link-list has-1-items has-auto-columns wp-block-t2-link-list\">\n\t<li class=\"t2-link-list-item wp-block-t2-link-list-item\">\n\t\t<a\n\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/ntpmetode\/dokumenter\/?_attachment_categories=fremsynsmetodikk\"\n\t\t\tclass=\"t2-link-list-item__link t2-link-list__icon--right\"\n\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"t2-link-list-item__icon\"><span class=\"t2-link-list-item__icon-box\"><\/span><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" height=\"24\" width=\"24\" class=\"t2-icon t2-icon-arrowforward\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M 20.78 12.531 L 14.03 19.281 C 13.89 19.421 13.699 19.5 13.5 19.5 C 13.301 19.5 13.11 19.421 12.969 19.281 C 12.828 19.14 12.749 18.949 12.749 18.75 C 12.749 18.551 12.828 18.36 12.969 18.219 L 18.439 12.75 L 3.75 12.75 C 3.551 12.75 3.36 12.671 3.219 12.53 C 3.079 12.39 3 12.199 3 12 C 3 11.801 3.079 11.61 3.219 11.47 C 3.36 11.329 3.551 11.25 3.75 11.25 L 18.439 11.25 L 12.969 5.781 C 12.828 5.64 12.749 5.449 12.749 5.25 C 12.749 5.051 12.828 4.86 12.969 4.719 C 13.11 4.579 13.301 4.5 13.5 4.5 C 13.699 4.5 13.89 4.579 14.03 4.719 L 20.78 11.469 C 20.85 11.539 20.905 11.622 20.943 11.713 C 20.981 11.804 21 11.901 21 12 C 21 12.099 20.981 12.196 20.943 12.287 C 20.905 12.378 20.85 12.461 20.78 12.531 Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><\/svg><\/span>\t\t\t<div class=\"t2-link-list-item__content\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"t2-link-list-item__text\">\n\t\t\t\t\tSe det forel\u00f8pige kunnskapsgrunnlaget her\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/li>\n\t\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"post_sublanguage":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1785","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.3 (Yoast SEO v25.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fremsynsmetodikk - ntpmetode<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jernbanedirektoratet.no\/ntpmetode\/fremsynsmetodikk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"nb_NO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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